(ESEAnews) - Hello TF2 community and welcome to my first weekly match prediction article. As I mentioned earlier, starting this season my articles will be focusing more on match predictions and less on power rankings. All of ESEANews is making this switch, and we are hoping it will give teams that are lower in the standings a chance to shine rather than having the same ten teams hogging the coverage. Power rankings will still be included each week with a brief summary of any movement.
So Open was a little weird last week. Since we had an odd number of teams (59), open started a week earlier than IM and invite. During this week we had 16 teams play an extra snakewater match, which will help balance out that odd number. I guess it was week 0 technically? I did not provide any coverage of week 0, as there were only 8 matches being played. None of the matches were amazingly league-changing, but I encourage you to check out the results. Now, let’s get into some snakewater predictions with week 1.
ESEA TF2 OPEN SEASON 11 - WEEK 1
WELOVEANIME · cp_snakewater · Wed, Apr 11th at 12:30pm
Prediction: MZD < lovesit 1-5 by Deathanchor
The first match I’ll be looking at this week probably won’t end up with the closest of scores. With three seasons of experience together, Plus Forward is coming in with a big advantage in the teamwork department. The reason I selected this match for review is because of my uncertainty of Magic Zebra Dromio’s strength. With players like mikerophone from SYOPS and tragic on their team they are bound to do some damage on Plus Forward and in Open in general. Plus Forward’s lineup isn’t quite as good as it was last season, but they will still be a good benchmark for Zebra to compare themselves to as far as upper Open teams go. Zebra put up a respectable three rounds against Shut up and Slam in their week 0 match, so Plus Forward should not be too big of a leap for them. I don’t think they will be able to do quite as well as they did against Slam, but am banking on them to be able to putt a round up on the board.
GEOFF_PLUS vs THE HURRICANE · cp_snakewater · Fri, Apr 13th at 12:00pm
Prediction: Geoff > FU 5-3 by Deathanchor
Now this will be a much closer match. Garbage Plus is going to have the edge as far as teamwork goes seeing that they have maintained most of their roster from last season. However We Can Warriors is going to have the advantage in raw DM ability. Warriors still do not have emperor paid up, who imo would strengthen their lineup twofold. In addition I was surprised to see that they dropped four rounds against From Downtown in their week 0 match. From Downtown is not a pushover by any means, but I expected Warriors to roll them with ease. I look forward to seeing if they run tmarshall in this match, as I see his attendance being a big factor to the outcome of this match. Along with emperor, I would say he is also one of the strongest players on the roster. Garbage is going to have to work for it, but I see them squeezing out a close victory as long as Warriors plays the same lineup they did last week. If emperor or tmarshall end up playing though, I could see Warriors being able to take the match with a similar score in their favor.
Sinners Truck Problems vs AG Unagi · cp_snakewater · Tue, Apr 10th at 1:30pm
Prediction: ohfuck > AG 5-3 by Deathanchor
What a huge matchup to be happening in only the first week of the season. Shut up and Slam and Juanetic Gaming are both top ten teams for me, no questions asked. On the Juanetic side, I’d keep an eye on both Fabri and Gravegun as the players to watch. Fabri, who had an impressive run in IM with Businessmen, is going to especially help out no matter which of the three fragging classes he plays. Slam also has some big names like FFG and ryanr, but as a whole don’t have quite the depth that Juanetic has. Not a single player on Juanetic strikes me as a weak link. Their dm ability is going to be a good notch above Slam’s, which I think is going to be the determining factor in this match. Slam in my opinion could very well be stronger with scouts, but the other positions seem to be a little tougher on the Juanetic side. I’m going with a 5-3 Juanetic victory.
Treason vs inactive dead · cp_snakewater · Thu, Apr 12th at 1:00pm
Prediction: JtheT < deadddd 3-5 by Deathanchor
While neither Treason nor Trinity is at the very top of Open, Trinity’s recent roster changes could put them ahead of most and inch them right outside my top ten teams. Treason comes back for another season of Open with half of their previous lineup, gaining redrum, sinner, and me. While Treason is unlikely to create a major upset here, they will provide a good test for Trinity in seeing how powerful they are now that they have ditched Cash and added romeo_love to their lineup. Romeo was easily the strongest player on his previous team Lonely Hearts, and his soldier game is bound to do work for Trinity. Other than him I would also keep an eye on Drone as one of the better players to watch. If Trinity can roll Treason here then I would not be surprised to see them pop up in my rankings shortly. However, I still see a roll as being unlikely. Predicting a solid 5-3 win for Trinity.
Reloaded · cp_snakewater · Thu, Apr 12th at 12:29pm
Prediction: IcA > MZD 5-2 by Deathanchor
I feel sorry for Magic Zebra Dromio for having to play two top teams back to back in only the first week of play. However unlike Plus Forward, I am a little uncertain about the strength of Reloaded right now. From the looks of it, I would say Reloaded is not quite as strong as Plus Forward, but I still think they will have the chops to take down Zebra. The player who really stuck out at me on Reloaded was Mythikal. What a huge player to have on an Open roster. While he didn’t get the most action in Invite or IM in previous seasons, his overall match experience will be invaluable at this level of the game where most players have just a season or two to loo bac on. Then Reloaded still has Fog and snowblindfrog to boot, not a shabby roster at. While I don’t expect Reloaded to bringing the pain to any of the top five teams at this point, I do see them coming through with a win here against Zebra. I’m guessing a 5-3 Reloaded win.
WELOVEANIME vs IS THIS CS · cp_snakewater · Fri, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Prediction: lovesit > get5 5-4 by Deathanchor
Here is a bit of a shakeup match. I think most players would be quick to put Plus Forward as the clear winner here against equals. But I think equals is actually a lot stronger than what you may think, and was tempted to include them in my preseason write up. Last season equals went by “Is This CS”, and finished with a less than impressive record. This time around, their opening schedule looks far more manageable, and I know they have made improvements to their team. WirelessFox and phife are my players to watch from their team. I think they will be able to surprise Open this season, and get a few rounds off of Plus Forward here in the first week. Regardless, I still see Plus taking the win in the end. Their combo is just too powerful for a mid-open team like equals to handle. While Plus’s scouts could face some problems against equals, the combo work of Tiger and Linkay will ultimately come through with the win.
Barely Not Open vs SUP DOE · cp_snakewater · Thu, Apr 12th at 1:00pm
Prediction: Open < doe 2-5 by Deathanchor
I’m a little upset that Fluffy isn’t playing against a team I am more familiar with this week, as I am now questioning my initial impression of Fluffy and need a good match to get a beter feel for them. When I first saw Fluffy’s roster I thought for sure they would be a top five team. With players like eulogy, thr4sher, amazon, and fluffy, I was convinced they were destined for the top. After closer inspection, I am reversing my instinct and saying that Fluffy is not as strong as I previously had thought. They aren't going to be beating any of the top five teams. That being said, I still think they will be threat this season to the test of Open and am predicting they start out on the right foot with a win over DCNGaming. DCN seems to have a few experienced players such as goobma and iAreRobot. To be honest, I am not all that familiar with the rest of their roster. I suspect them not be in the bottom half of Open though, so I’m hoping they give Fluffy a good fight. I’m going with a pretty safe prediction of 5-2 Fluffy.
The Runaway 5 vs Taylor Swift Experience · cp_snakewater · Fri, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Prediction: r5 > Hungry 5-1 by Deathanchor
Similar to Fluffy’s matchup, I was hoping srsly br0pen would get a little bit of a stronger opponent to help me get a feel for their strength. On second thought, He-Man Muscles might end up fitting the bill nicely. I remember last week looking at He-Mans Muscles, I shrugged them off as being just mid-open and nothing to rant about. However they made a great pickup recently gaining former Open-champion Hibachi. Having a powerful carry like Hibachi is bound to make He-Man a team worth watching. It’s not like they are a one-trick pony either. Real, Long, and Caritas are all capable players who might give their team a shot against Srsly br0pen. I don’t see an upset happening, as Srsly br0pen simply is a strong open team all around. He-Man seems to be a bit more lop-sided with their skill distribution, and would speculate srsly br0pen as having the better teamwork. Still, this match could be closer than what I first thought…
Sour Patch N***** vs Sinners Truck Problems · cp_snakewater · Mon, Apr 16th at 12:30pm
Prediction: PN > ohfuck 5-2 by Deathanchor
First we had the surprise of Slam vs. Juanetic in the first week of matches, but now we have UKM vs. Juanetic as well?!? I can’t believe my top two ranked teams already have to play against each other. Well fortunately, I am not seeing this as a very difficult prediction to make. Even though Juanetic packs a punch against all the other Open teams, UKM is just on a tier of their own. My first instinct was to call a 5-0 UKM result. But knowing them and their current public opinion of being “too good for Open”, they will likely throw a round or two or mess around with offclassing a bit more than intended in order to make the match a little more interesting. That may sound a bit harsh, but hey it’s accurate. I don’t want to make any hasty opinions quite yet about whether or not UKM belong in Open though. Who knows maybe they really aren’t as jacked as they appear? Bottom line is if there is a match to determine whether or not they belong in Open, it’s this one right here against Juanetic. I’m going to go with 5-2 UKM. Don’t miss it!
Kawaii Washing Machines vs cant play- hl match · cp_snakewater · Mon, Apr 16th at 12:00pm
Prediction: cl > HLx420x 5-1 by Deathanchor
And here they are, Drugs are Illegal. I was looking forward to reviewing one of Drug’s matches, as I think they are easily a top five team this season. Here they face off against Can’t Play HL, which I consider to be the harder of their two snakewater matches. Still, I don’t see Drug’s having many problems this week at all. Can’t Play HL has a few notable players such as synchro and think, but really are missing that trump card player they would need to beat a team like Drugs who has numerous IM-worthy players such as Fox, marmadukegrillz, and mgib. Can’t Play HL has a few players that have gone through a season with each other, which should make for some decent teamwork among them. However, it would take a godly amount of teamwork to change this match’s outcome. Drugs is simply a stronger team all around. Plus since the map is snakewater, we are likely to see mgib run a 24/7 sniper as soon as he realizes his team has the match in the bag. Sniper has been seeing more and more use on snakewater lately and this match will be no exception to the trend.
OPEN POWER RANKINGS - WEEK 1
1. Ultimate Killing Machine -- (~)
2. Juanetic Gaming -- (~)
3. Drugs Are Illegal -- (~)
4. Plus Forward or Bust-- (~)
5. Srsly Br0pen -- (~)
6. Shut Up and Slam -- (~)
7. New Map Thugz -- (~)
8. Reloaded -- (~)
9. Magic Zebra Dromio -- (~)
10. Garbage Plus -- (~)
So here is what the new Power Rankings look like. Short, simple, clear, what’s not to like? I will also include a brief summary in this section of any important ranking changes that I think deserve an explanation.
Looking at this week’s rankings, my attention turns to the bottom five spots. While I have pretty decent confidence in my top five picks, I feel as if my bottom five choices are a bit shaky. I have probably overestimated the strength of Magic Zebra Dromio and New Map Thugz. They are no doubt good teams, but I am having a rough time judging their strength against some of the teams. On the other hand there are a lot of good teams right outside the rankings that I am probably underestimating, so we should see some movement there in the coming future.
Phew, these new articles are rough. What do you guys think of the new format? Go ahead and let me know what you think and if and if you have any suggestions for it. I will bring anything good ideas up at my next meeting. Cheers!
Originally published on ESEA on 4/10/2012, 12:10 PM by Deathanchor.
Archived from ESEA TF2 Open Season 11 - Week 1 as part of tf2esports.com's preservation of ESEA's TF2 coverage. All rights remain with the original author and ESEA; reposted for historical reference.