(ESEAnews) - Well, folks, it's been an interesting week, one where some of my out-there preds turned out to be true and my thought-to-be safe preds were shattered by reality. With that, we had our first four teams out of the playoffs: Quitters, Official Erock Fan Club, Battery, and 2+2=5. Quitters FFL'd both their maps due to a missing player, and Battery/2+2=5 were not exactly favorites to win, but Root+5 losing this early on was certainly a shocker.
Unfortunately, I don't think the 4 teams getting the ax this week are necessarily the worst four of the teams left, thanks to some unlucky seeding that didn't really pair things up perfectly. Eh, such is life.
So, today's matches will all be on gravelpit, a map that tends to favor teams that are good at it HEAVILY, kind of like viaduct but for very different reasons. Will that lead to a ton of upsets? Let's find out!
ESEA-OPEN PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS - ROUND 3
Leviathan Gaming vs Gym Leaders · cp_gravelpit · Tue, Apr 12th at 12:00pm
Sadly, the bros over at Gym Leaders had to FFL this match due to not having 6 players online. I'm not sure of the exact story, but judging by their usernames, I think iCreate is the most likely culprit for missing player of the match. Sadly this makes Gym Leaders the 5th team to drop, leaving only 11 to battle it out (3 more of which will be booted today). Well, at least it's one less prediction for me to have to write!
...Sorry.
UPPER BRACKET:
Dead Dazzle · cp_gravelpit · Wed, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Well, the long awaited showdown is finally here...again. Let's not forget that these two powerhouses met during snakewater week, and Avoided kind of dismantled Kinetic 5-0. Then again, Kinetic has been playing much stronger as of late, and with playoffs on the line, I think they'll bring their a-game. That being said, Avoided has a knack for being nearly unstoppable when the map they're playing on is one that fits them really well, and few maps fit the bill more than gravelpit. Ben will have a chance to really show off his sniper chops on this one, the soldiers' coordination will keep the roof locked down constantly, and FireFarseer is an absolute monster on gpit. It'll take a very powerful performance from Kinetic to overcome such a snug fit for map choice.
So, what is Kinetic bringing to the table? Well, first of all, they have what could be called the best soldier pair in open. Both sting and snypes have put up excellent numbers in nearly every match so far. Perhaps more essential to the team's success, the two can switch off pocketing and roaming on the fly, something that will prove vitally important on a map such as gravelpit, where area control matters more than frags on a level even beyond push maps. Kinetic isn't traditionally known for being strong on gpit, but that can be at least partially blamed on kaoz, their dud of a former demoman. With Plasma Snake playing (especially if the dude has himself a good day), the team will most likely be able to show a stronger offense than in their previous matches. The biggest possible weakness on the map will definitely be the team's scouts. Dlay really needs to rein back the aggression and stay alive, and Jav must keep constant pressure up so that Plasma can do some real damage. Avoided beat the team so badly last time because they're very good at playing off another team's flaws, and they just might do that here. Still, I say “possible weakness” because Kinetic's scouts can both be a valuable asset to the team on a good day, particularly dLay. Again, though, the team's gonna need a very good day.
I want to call this a 2-1 nailbiter, but aV is just so strong on the map. Feel free to prove me wrong, Kinetic!
Avoided 2 > 0 Kinetic
MVP: FireFarseer (and ben, because he told me to)
Kawaii Kingz vs Pinball Wizards · cp_gravelpit · Wed, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Some people might be surprised to see that Kawaii Kingz and Nothing 2 Prove (particularly the former) are 2-0 in the playoffs, given their relatively low seeds. Well, with both teams being extremely strong on gravelpit, hopefully the teams will silence the (imaginary) haters (that I just made up) by performing beyond expectations on this map. Both teams are pretty well designed for this map, in my opinion, but I do think that n2p has the distinct advantage overall.
Nothing 2 Prove has shown earlier in the season that they are an extremely powerful contender on gravelpit. Their chemistry is really strong, they're not afraid to try exotic strategies, and their heavy classes have improved since gpit week! Hh, being the team leader, will probably be able to get away with spearheading attacks and defenses more than Rummy did, which will be important on such a demo-centric map. Moreover, Cannon's godly raw aim will come in massive handy on the map, especially if n2p uses some of the strategies they employed against Spacemoney on the map. Slipz behind the medigun will also prove to be important, as teams attempt to survive and regroup after failed pushes or broken defenses. Overall, n2p is in the driver's seat here. Besides, tang could always beast and single-handedly carry the team for a while, in which case victory would be even more assured.
Kawaii Kingz, on the other hand, has Khai. And Caspian. But mainly Khai. And kinda Teddy. But mostly Khai. And, if the team's lucky, aurens. But, most importantly, they have Khai. It's no secret that the good old LUE-pug-squadron is VERY heavy class-oriented, and nowhere is that more advantageous than on a map where splash and explosive damage is the name of the game, a map like gravelpit. Helas is a decent sniper, but I don't know if he can match tang (unless they decide to have squider snipe, which doesn't seem like the best idea to me). Aurens can be a strong player as well, but he gets so few heals that it's a mistake to rely on him. Teddy will probably survive in some unlikely situations, but other than that it's unlikely that he'll be able to secure a W for his team.
I think it's pretty clear what will happen here. Either a) n2p will get a 2-0 victory, or b) Khai and Caspian will turn it up a notch or n2p will slip a bit and it'll only be 2-1 for n2p. I just don't see KK winning it, sorry bros.
n2p 2 > 1 Kawaii Kingz
MVP: Cannon
P.S. Happy birthday, blueberry!
LOWER BRACKET:
6 Brogues vs MAKING A COMEBACK · cp_gravelpit · Wed, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Unfortunately, it seems as though Brogues are gonna forfeit this match. Damn shame, because I had a lot to say about this very tight matchup. Eh, what can you do.
Stats and Hats vs the post-woodpig destiny · cp_gravelpit · Wed, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
I think this will be a pretty close match, with both teams bringing a mix of talented players and dependable but unspectacular support to the table. I also think that whichever team wins will probably be the weakest team in the top 8. Well, it had to be somebody!
Looking at the teams, I think Stats and Hats has 2 major player advantages over wutang, whereas wutang only has 1 over Stats and Hats. The former has a pretty big demo advantage; Drekwiz has proven to be a fairly strong demoman, but Mythikal definitely has the upper hand, and his experience and good positioning will help out a lot on the map. SnH also has thrickstr, whose offclassing talents will really shine on this map. I definitely see him hitting some sick sniper shots, and who knows, maybe he'll even put on a good show with the spy at some point!
On the flipside, wutang has Boink. The guy has proven to be a very powerful, massively underrated pocket soldier, one who is perfectly capable of doing an aggro jump and just mowing people on the other team down. Thrasher is a very strong pocket, but I don't see his more passive style translating as well onto gravelpit (feel free to prove me wrong mang!). That kind of segues into an overall advantage for 36 Chambers: I think they fit the map better. They're just more balls out, and yet at the same time, they have better chemistry than SnH in my opinion (they aren't as well dressed though!).
I'm gonna say 2-1 to SnH for now, but it could really go either way.
Stats and Hats 2 > 1 Enter the 36 Chambers
MVP: thrickstr
wSuT vs Sqwiggling With Sqwiggle · cp_gravelpit · Wed, Apr 13th at 12:30pm
Sqwiggles have certainly improved as a team recently, but they're still definitely not strong enough to beat WNBA on gravelpit, not by a long shot. WNBA has a pair of very aggressive, jumpy soldiers, a sticky spamming demo who likes to be pocketed, and a wily scout who can snipe pretty dang well. I can't think of a better team for a map like gravelpit. Sqwiggles will be having trouble keeping their eponymous demoman alive, and even with the additions of kraka and Tagg, I just don't see this being close. Sorry bros, but that's the way it goes.
WNBA 2 > 0 Sqwiggling with Sqwiggles
MVP: Bruiser
Originally published on ESEA on 4/13/2011, 12:58 PM by baklavadarryl.
Archived from ESEA TF2 Open Playoff Preds - Round 3 as part of tf2esports.com's preservation of ESEA's TF2 coverage. All rights remain with the original author and ESEA; reposted for historical reference.